Bovaer boost for organic exposes milk supply issues

Following consumer opposition to Bovaer, the organic milk sector has seen a rise in demand – but can it supply?

Scare stories swirling on social media about Bovaer, a methane-suppressing feed supplement for cows, have spilled over into a supply shortage for organic milk.

“[…] there’s been a huge spike in demand for organic milk recently (thanks in part to Bovaer feed additive – which our farmers aren’t trialling!),” wrote McQueens in a message to its customers (including me) last week. “This has caused a strain on supply of organic milk across the industry.”

Supermarkets are struggling to get enough organic milk too, according to McQueens. 

This time of year is always a little tight when it comes to supply and demand of organic milk; and generally the seasonal shortage eases as spring calving herds have their calves.

But this year seems to be extreme with my milkman, McQueens, pushing customers (with enticing discounts) to switch from organic to its Red Tractor assured milk. It can’t be just down to Bovaer, can it? And what are the impacts for organic dairy across the industry?

Soumya Behera is the dairy market expert at AHDB, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. She tracks the market closely so I asked her what’s going on.

For the milk season so far (April to December), organic milk deliveries in Great Britain are estimated to have totalled 265.55 million litres, which is 7% less than 2023/24 and a more substantial 20.7% fall compared to 2022/23. “Considering the year-on-year decline, there seems to be some shortage in the market,” she explains.

Conventional milk, meanwhile, has been increasing of late. Production in that April to December period totalled 9,333 million litres (more than 30 times organic production), up 0.7% against the previous year and 2.5% up on the 5-year average for December production. This momentum has also been reflected in organic milk, Behera explains, but it’s not enough to meet the demand.

“In the month of January to date, organic milk deliveries totalled 17.49 million litres, up 0.9% compared to the same period previous year,” she adds.

The decline in organic milk production has come down from the double digits seen at the beginning of the year to “positive territory” recently and production has been “picking up” from November onwards. There is some shortage in the market currently which could be mitigated through these increasing deliveries, she adds, but “it will take sometime to fill the supply pipeline”.

This organic growth isn’t perhaps what analysts were expecting a few months ago. Organic sales are particularly vulnerable to price movements, so with a somewhat gloomy Autumn budget predicting lacklustre economic growth in the UK and with potential downsides from the fallout on global trade with a Trump presidency, the clouds were gathering over the organic sector. “It will be important to tell the organic story and communicate the benefits of organic to draw consumers back and support demand,” Behera wrote in a November blog.

As it turned out, help came via that scare story on social media, as McQueens pointed to Bovaer for the bump in demand. This is a feed supplement that has been used on thousands of farms across the world and shows promise for reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, produced by cows. Marks and Spencer announced a trial in April 2024 and there was zero fuss.

However, Arla’s trial with Morrisons, Tesco and Aldi, kicked up a storm as misinformation about the safety of the supplement (produced by dsm-firmenich) to humans spread. Arla was forced to defend its position and called on the sector to rally round and fight back given the importance of such innovations in reducing emissions from livestock farming.

Speaking this week at a conference in London, Defra’s minister for farming and food security, Daniel Zeichner said “we are absolutely convinced that it [Bovaer] is safe. If we are serious about reducing methane we have to look at [innovations] like this.”

There was more to the saga than that, of course. Concerns about ‘big food’, poor animal welfare and the impact of ‘sustainable’ innovations on food safety all played a part in driving coverage.

Certified organic farmers are not permitted to use Bovaer. That’s because the main components that make up the supplement are not included in the list of approved products/compounds.

“Arla buys milk from many different farms and they supply both organic and non-organic milk,” the Association said in a December statement. “Any organic milk they supply must meet organic regulation requirements and the production has to be completely separate from any non-organic milk. This must be demonstrated and independently audited every year.”

The current supply squeeze may well have been exacerbated by the bother over Bovaer but there are other factors at play too. High feed costs and a shortage of labour for example. Plus a lack of governemt support in organic farming and food.

Milk and dairy processors will need to react to growing demand to cover any shortages by incentivising organic production – in other words by increasing milk prices and offering prospective organic farmers more certainty, says Behera. 

Soil Association Director of Farming and Land Use, Katrin Hochberg, is pleased to see increased sales for organic dairy again. The organisation has been aware there would be some shortages during the end of last year – “the season of highest demand” – and the sector has responded well to that, she says.

However, “we need to be aware that organic farmers cannot easily increase production after some tough years of high input costs and lower consumer demand during the cost of living crisis”, she adds. “Whilst the outlook is much improved, what organic dairy farmers really need to invest with confidence is a sustained period of strong milk prices and trust that support from consumers, the whole supply chain and government is here to stay.”

The Labour government is currently at loggerheads with farmers over the inheritance tax changes. However, it has made a big play to make food and farming a central part of its programme – there is a farming roadmap and new national food strategy on the way, for example, with ministers making encouraging noises about the need to deliver sustainable food systems that provide healthy, affordable food.

The organic sector will be looking to seize on that opportunity, especially as interest in regenerative approaches to farming increase and our farms are weaned off chemical inputs. 

Last month, 13 green groups wrote to Zeichner calling on him to develop an “organic action plan”, which would boost both production and consumption. England has fallen behind the likes of Scotland, Ireland, and the EU on policies to deliver growth in organic.

In the letter – signed by the Soil Association, Greenpeace, RSPB, the National Trust and others – the government was urged not to fail the sector as previous governments had, with organic farmland shrinking despite an increase in public demand for homegrown, healthy produce.

Tim Mead from Yeo Valley says nearly 6 per cent of dairy farmers exited last year, due to retirement or poor financial returns, for example, and this figure was “slightly higher” in organic. The sector can’t respond like their conventional counterparts to market shifts, he explains.

“It takes two years to convert or replace organic farms whereas [farmers] remaining non-organic can feed more and increase yields,” says Mead. “This is not an option for organic farmers due to over 60 per cent of feed having to come from forage. Conventional dairy is [also] imported in the form of cheese, yogurt and butter [whereas] very little organic dairy is imported.”

Organic has always been susceptible to longer supply and demand surpluses and deficits due to the conversion period, which in reality is closer to three years due to lengthy admin, business plans and certifications. Farmers must be supported in this transition and beyond.

There is help on its way. The organic dairy round table has just been launched for example, in which all parts of the organic dairy supply chain are represented and are working together to grow the market and production in a sustainable way. The group “will be more public over the coming months, in promoting the benefits of organic dairy and to address collectively the challenges and opportunities that the sector faces”, says Hochberg.

Interest in and attention on farming and food has never been higher. This is an opportunity for organic that it must seize.

2 Comments

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  1. This ridiculous conspiracy didn’t just stop at the alleged harm that Bovaer could cause. The people pushing this scare story (and the chumps who believe it) are under the impression that because Bill Gates – a regular target of conspiracy theorists – has a financial interest in a similar company in Australia called Rumin8, he must by inference be linked to Bovaer. But isn’t that the mantra for 2025: “never let the facts get in the way of a good conspiracy”. A better one would be “If you ever see the Light Paper being given away, pick up as many copies as you can and put them in the recycling.”

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  2. Organic & also non-organic plant milk sales are continually rising, so I don’t think the decline in organic dairy milk sales is impacted by people choosing non-organic dairy alone, but by ditching dairy all together and choosing plant milks. On average, organic plant milk retails at a higher price than organic dairy milk, but the supply chains and investment in plant milks is a lot lower compared to dairy. Dairy is a tough gig for small and medium sized farms, especially with the low milk prices.

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